University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, December 15 - TX/OK/AR: During the next 2 days... a vigorous low pressure system will move out of the Rockies, crossing west to east through the central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley and the Great Lakes. Today... mostly sunny in west TX and the Panhandles. Cloudy elsewhere with drizzle, light rain, or freezing rain/sleet in central and eastern OK, much of eastern TX, and AR. Highs in the 30's eastern sections to near 70 west TX. As the Low moves by to the north.... another surge of very cold air will scream southward through the Plains, affecting OK and AR by late tonight and the northern half of TX on Saturday. Lows tonight in the 20's to 50's. Highs Saturday also in the 30's north to 70's south, but dropping into the 20's in the northern sections during the afternoon.

Trajectory weather: Austin: Cloudy with drizzle or light rain today, high in the 50's. Rain ending but continued cloudy tonight, low near 30. Good chance of rain on Saturday, high in the 50's. Junction / San Angelo: Becoming mostly sunny this afternoon, high in the upper 60's. Mostly clear tonight, becoming partly cloudy late tonight and Saturday. Low in the low 30's, high Saturday in the 40's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** We are early in the release season, though a few cones may be ready for release. Conditions are mostly unfavorable for pollen release today. Similar situation to Thursday, when conditions in the western sections of the Plateau were mixed while those over the rest of the Plateau were unfavorable. Temperatures and winds are favorable in the west but humidities are high, though dropping during the late morning. Far too moist in eastern areas of the Plateau with humidities well over 90% and holding steady. Temperatures are marginal. Any release that occurs will be from the western sections of the Plateau today. Ill effects should be few. Residents along the western and northern fringes of the Plateau are most likely to be affected. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.