Pollen Forecast, 15 December 1999

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Friday, December 15 - TX/OK/AR: During the next 2 days... a vigorous low pressure system will move out of the Rockies, crossing west to east through the central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley and the Great Lakes. Today... mostly sunny in west TX and the Panhandles. Cloudy elsewhere with drizzle, light rain, or freezing rain/sleet in central and eastern OK, much of eastern TX, and AR. Highs in the 30's eastern sections to near 70 west TX. As the Low moves by to the north.... another surge of very cold air will scream southward through the Plains, affecting OK and AR by late tonight and the northern half of TX on Saturday. Lows tonight in the 20's to 50's. Highs Saturday also in the 30's north to 70's south, but dropping into the 20's in the northern sections during the afternoon.

Trajectory weather: Clouds and fog early. Chance of freezing rain increasing during the afternoon. High in the low 30's. Freezing rain changing to light snow by midnight, then snow likely late. Low in the 20's. Snow likely Saturday. Temperatures continuing to fall into the single digits by nightfall.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Most cones are likely immature this early in the season. Conditions are very unfavorable for pollen release today. Temperatures are too cold and humidities will remain much too high. Very little to no release expected. On Saturday... conditions will again be unfavorable for pollen release. Winds will shift to the northwest. Temperatures will reach only the 30's in the morning before falling through the afternoon. Little to no release expected on Saturday, with few ill effects on the resident along the pathway through AR. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Oak Grove, AR

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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