University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Date Issued: 15 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, December 15 - TX/OK/AR: During the next 2 days... a vigorous low pressure system will move out of the Rockies, crossing west to east through the central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley and the Great Lakes. Today... mostly sunny in west TX and the Panhandles. Cloudy elsewhere with drizzle, light rain, or freezing rain/sleet in central and eastern OK, much of eastern TX, and AR. Highs in the 30's eastern sections to near 70 west TX. As the Low moves by to the north.... another surge of very cold air will scream southward through the Plains, affecting OK and AR by late tonight and the northern half of TX on Saturday. Lows tonight in the 20's to 50's. Highs Saturday also in the 30's north to 70's south, but dropping into the 20's in the northern sections during the afternoon.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy with fog or drizzle today, high in the 30's. Chance of snow after midnight with snow likely by morning, low in the 20's. Snow likely Saturday, with temperatures falling into the single digits by nightfall.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Early in the season, though a few cones may be ready to release pollen. Conditions are very unfavorable for release today. As for much of this week, temperatures are too cold and humidities will remain high through the day. Very little to no pollen release expected, with few ill effects on the populace. On Saturday... conditions will again be unfavorable for pollen release. Winds will be strong from the northwest, but temperatures will not reach the tolerance zone before falling again during the afternoon. Little to no release expected on Saturday. Residents along the pathway through northeast TX and central LA should feel few ill effects. TK

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.