University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area	Exposure Risk
Dallas / Ft. Worth	Low
Austin	Low
San Antonio	Low

Date Issued: 16 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday/Saturday, December 15/16 - TX/OK/AR: During the next 2 days... a vigorous low pressure system will move out of the Rockies, crossing west to east through the central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley and the Great Lakes. Today... mostly sunny in west TX and the Panhandles. Cloudy elsewhere with drizzle, light rain, or freezing rain/sleet in central and eastern OK, much of eastern TX, and AR. Highs in the 30's eastern sections to near 70 west TX. As the Low moves by to the north.... another surge of very cold air will scream southward through the Plains, affecting OK and AR by late Friday and the northern half of TX on Saturday. Lows tonight in the 20's to 50's. Highs Saturday also in the 30's north to 70's south, but dropping into the 20's in the northern sections during the afternoon.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny, high in the upper 60's to low 70's. Clear and cool Saturday night, lows in the 30's well inland to low 50's coast. Sunny on Sunday, high in the 60's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** We are early in the release season, though a few cones may be ready for release. Other conditions favor release on Saturday. Temperatures and humidities will be in the favorable ranges, particularly during the afternoon hours. Winds will be moderate, perhaps strong. Under these conditions, those cones that are ready to release will be doing so. Overall effects, however, should be Low.... with residents of south-central TX, the hill country, the coastal bend, the Rio Grande plains, and the southern and western sections of the Edwards Plateau the most likely to be affected. This includes the major metropolitan areas of Austin and San Antonio. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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