Pollen Transport Forecast, 17 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Ft. Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

Date Issued: 17 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Sunday, December 17 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure area is centered right over the region. The center of the High will shift east as a low pressure/frontal system forms in the lee of the southern Rockies and heads towards OK/TX. Dry weather expected region-wide today with clear to partly cloudy skies. Highs today mostly 40's to 60's. Lows tonight mostly 20's to 40's.

Trajectory weather: Austin: Sunny today, high near 50. Clear to partly cloudy tonight, low in the 20's. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow today, high in the 30's. Junction: Sunny today, high in the mid-50's. Mostly clear tonight, low near 30. Partly cloudy on Monday, high in the 50's. San Angelo: Sunny, high in the mid-50's. Partly cloudy tonight, low in the 20's. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain or snow on Monday, high in the 30's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** We are early in the release season, though a few cones may be ready for release. Mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions vary across the Plateau. Humidities will be favorable during the afternoon in all areas, moreso in the west. Likewise, temperatures will be favorable in the afternoon, particularly in the west where some sections may reach 60. Winds are light, to perhaps moderate in the west. Little pollen release expected in the eastern areas; some release possible in the western sections. Exposure risk overall should remain Low. Residents in the western sections of the Plateau and western sections of north TX are the most likely to feel any ill effects. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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