Pollen Transport Forecast, 20 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Ft. Worth

Moderate

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

Date Issued: 20 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 20 - TX/OK/AR: Frontal system developing in the lee of the southern Rockies today. Low pressure will slide east along the Red River Valley as the forming cold front pushes through TX. The front will be completely through the Lone Star state by Thursday morning as a reinforcing shot of cold air approaches the region from the north. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry today for most areas but cloudy with a chance of rain or snow for eastern sections. Windy all areas today as the system develops. Highs mostly in the 40's to 60's today but dropping off sharply behind the developing front. Lows tonight in the 10's to 20's north to 30's and 40's south.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy and windy today with highs in the 60's. Partly cloudy tonight in south-central TX; mostly cloudy tonight in eastern TX with a chance of showers. Lows in the 30's. Mostly sunny on Thursday, high in the 60's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** We are early in the release season, though a few cones may be ready for release. Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today. Today's scenario is quite similar to Monday's. Temperatures, humidities, and strong winds favor release; the non-readiness of most cones does not favor release. Any pollen available will likely become airborne, however. Moderate Risk of pollen exposure to residents of a broad area of central and eastern TX, including the metro areas of Dallas, Ft. Worth, Austin, and San Antonio today or tonight. Residents of Houston may also feel some ill effects by Thursday morning, though showers may serve to wash out some airborne grains before they would arrive in the area. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to Forecasting Home Page