University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Date Issued: 20 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 20 - TX/OK/AR: Frontal system developing in the lee of the southern Rockies today. Low pressure will slide east along the Red River Valley as the forming cold front pushes through TX. The front will be completely through the Lone Star state by Thursday morning as a reinforcing shot of cold air approaches the region from the north. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry today for most areas but cloudy with a chance of rain or snow for eastern sections. Windy all areas today as the system develops. Highs mostly in the 40's to 60's today but dropping off sharply behind the developing front. Lows tonight in the 10's to 20's north to 30's and 40's south.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy today, high in the upper 40's. Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of light rain or freezing rain overnight, low in the 30's. Becoming sunny on Thursday, high in the 50's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Early in the season, though a few cones may be ready to release pollen. Conditions are mixed but mostly unfavorable for release today. Temperatures are marginal but may nudge into the favorable range during mid-afternoon. Winds are strong. Humidities are in the favorable range by late morning. However, the number of cones ready for release probably remains small. Some release is possible today but it should not be significant. Low Risk of exposure. Residents of central OK, particularly those in a line from Lake Texoma to Oklahoma City, are the likeliest to be affected. TK

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.