University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area	Exposure Risk
Dallas / Ft. Worth	Low
Austin	Low
San Antonio	Low

Date Issued: 22 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, December 22 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure centered over MO/AR this morning will heavily influence the weather today and Saturday. As the High moves east, winds circulating clockwise around the High will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico today and tonight. Winds will increase as well. Fair nearly all areas today except for deep South Texas, where cloudy skies indicate the development of a low pressure center just off the coast. Winds around the High.... and development of the Low.... will serve to increase cloudiness in southern and eastern sections as time passes. Some drizzle possible tonight in the hill country. By Saturday, there will be a chance of light rain or showers in southern and eastern TX. Highs ranging from the 30's north and east to 50's south and west; lows tonight mostly in the 20's to 40's.

Trajectory weather: Sunny to partly cloudy today, high in the 50's. Increasing cloudiness tonight with a chance of drizzle/freezing drizzle after midnight. Low near 20. Cloudy with a chance of snow on Saturday, high in the mid-20's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** We are early in the release season, though a few cones may be ready for release. Mixed conditions for pollen release today. Temperatures will be in the tolerance range this afternoon, but won't proceed very far into it (low 50's for highs). For now the air is quite dry with low humidities which are well into the favorable range. Winds are moderate to strong with the higher wind speeds toward the western sections. Some pollen release will probably occur during the afternoon... mostly from the western areas of the Plateau. However, substantial amounts are not expected, with Low Risk of exposure. Residents of west-central TX, western north TX, western OK, and southeast KS are most likely to feel any ill effects. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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