University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Date Issued: 23 December 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Saturday, December 23 - TX/OK/AR: Major winter storm for the region by Monday: A frontal disturbance is moving southeastward through TX today, while weak low pressure continues to develop near the southern TX coast. Fair to partly cloudy today in west TX, the Panhandles, and central and western OK; otherwise cloudy, with drizzle/fog in parts of southern and southeast TX. These two surface weather elements will merge near the coast overnight, continuing to strengthen on Sunday and Monday as upper-level energy comes into play. Meanwhile, another shot of arctic air will push into the region from the north on Sunday. The result.... rain will increase in intensity and expand westward and northward on Sunday. By Monday, virtually the entire region will be engulfed in a vigorous storm with everything from snow and sleet in the north to showers and thunderstorms in the south. This slow-moving system will take several days to move away and will likely affect the region through mid-week. Highs today mostly in the 40's and 50's, 30's north to 60's south on Sunday. Lows tonight in the 20's to 40's all but deep south TX.

Trajectory weather: Becoming partly cloudy by mid-afternoon, high in the mid-40's. Variably cloudy tonight, low in the mid-30's. Becoming cloudy on Sunday with a chance of light rain or drizzle in the afternoon, high in the 40's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Early in the season, though a few cones may be ready to release pollen. Conditions are unfavorable for pollen release through Christmas Day. Today... temperatures around the Arbuckle Mountain source region will struggle mightily to reach the tolerance range, but will fall short. Moisture conditions are marginal at best. Winds are fairly light as well. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.... the weather will be even more unfavorable for pollen release. Humidities increase with time, temperatures decrease, and precipitation is expected by Sunday afternoon. Very little to no pollen release expected each day, with Low Risk of Exposure. TK

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.