University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 12  TX/OK/AR: Showers and rain are in the forecast today for northern Texas, across central to eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas.  Precipitation of 0.25 inches is expected in OK City, Tulsa, and Ardmore with greater amounts to the east and north.  Temperatures will reach the low to mid 50 s, warmer to the south, with low temperatures in the upper 30 s to low 40 s.  On Thursday mostly cloudy conditions will persist with cooler temperatures.  Highs will be in the upper 40 s and lows near or below freezing.  Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will persist on Wednesday over the Edwards Plateau.  Cloudy conditions will dominate to the south and east with a greater chance of clearing to the west.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60 s with low temperatures in the mid 40 s overnight. Thursday temperatures will cool with highs reaching the mid to upper 50 s and low temperatures in the 30 s.  Throughout the entire southern plains region winds will be steady, 10-15 miles per hour, out of the south and southwest.  Overnight the regional wind pattern will shift towards the north-northwest and calm.  Relative humidity will be high with today s precipitation but a drying trend will begin in Texas as high pressure begins to build towards the end of the week.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy today with increasing breaks overnight. High temperatures will be in the mid-60's over the central Texas region.  Low s tonight will be in the 40 s.  A cooling trend will leave high temperatures in the 50 s on Thursday.  Precipitation will be confined to the northern Texas region.  Winds will be from the south to southwest turning to the north and northwest overnight.  Stronger daytime wind conditions will ease overnight and into Thursday.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas of the Plateau temperatures will barely reach the tolerance range but precipitation and humidity will remain high. However, informants on the plateau suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, therefore pollen release has not yet begun. Residents throughout south-central TX or the hill country should have another day without any ill effects. No pollen release is expected. Low Risk of Exposure.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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