University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, December 14  TX/OK/AR: High pressure is building across the area resulting in a sunny day throughout central to northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.  Central and northeastern Oklahoma will remain partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain to the north and east.  Winds across the southern plains will remain light, 5 to 10 miles per hour, from the south.  High temperatures will be in the low 60 s south, low 50 s to the north, with low temperatures varying from the upper 40 s to the north and lower 40 s to the south.  On Saturday, a warm front moves north from the Gulf of Mexico bringing cloudy conditions to south and south central Texas.  At the same time a developing trough over eastern Colorado and continued developing showers on a line from eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, across Arkansas, will increase wind strength across the region shifting from the south to southwest.  Saturday will see partly cloudy conditions, thickening to the northeast with a 40% chance of precipitation in northwestern Arkansas.  Windy conditions will be especially notable in Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  High temperatures will be in the upper 60 s throughout Texas with the lows in the mid- to upper 40 s.  Temperatures to the north, Oklahoma and the Ozark region, will be 10 degrees cooler on Saturday. 

Trajectory weather: Mostly clear today with increasing clouds tonight. The calculated trajectories show a pathway dominated by the south to north pressure gradient that causes the upper elevation winds to increase to the north.  The lowest trajectories from Junction remain at a relatively constant low elevation whereas the dominant pattern of the other trajectories is to climb towards the north.  Strong wind fields throughout the central plains pull the air masses long distances over a relatively short period of time.

  Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas of the Plateau temperatures should reach the tolerance range but the humidity remains high.  If release is to occur expect it on the western Edwards Plateau. Informants in Texas continue to suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, therefore pollen release has not yet begun. Residents throughout  the southern plains should have another day without any ill effects.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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