University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Saturday, December 15  TX/OK/AR: On Saturday, A warm front continues to moves north from the Gulf of Mexico bringing cloudy conditions to south and south central Texas.  At the same time a developing low pressure over Colorado continues to build associated with a cold front that will begin to move to the east.  Ahead of this front rain will develop in a line from eastern Texas, to southeastern Oklahoma and across Arkansas.  Winds will be from the south to southwest region wide with increased velocity to the north in Oklahoma.  The cloudy conditions across eastern Texas will bring a chance of rain to Dallas, Waco, Fredricksburg and Austin. Areas of southern and eastern Oklahoma, as well as Arkansas and Missouri have significant chances of precipitation.  High temperatures will be in the mid 60 s with low temperatures in the upper 50 s throughout Texas.  An overall 5 degree cooling is expected for the northern areas of Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Sunday will see a continued chance of precipitation in eastern Texas, Oklahoma and throughout Arkansas during the day with clearing occurring from the west late.  Winds will continue to be from the south to southwest until the front passes when they will switch to a north to northwest direction.  High temperatures will be in the upper 60 s throughout Texas with the lows in the lower 40 s to mid 30 s.  Temperatures to the north, Oklahoma and the Ozark region, will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Sunday. 

Trajectory weather: Cloudy conditions throughout the region with significant chances of precipitation along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Warm temperatures but high humidity will be typical at the surface along the trajectories.  Weather patterns to the north draw the winds off of the plateau at a fast rate with the air rising along its pathway.  The trajectories from the western Edwards Plateau show that as the cold front passes, wind directions shift to a  north to northwest direction pushing the flow back towards the southeast.  Precipitation will spread from west to east as Saturday and Sunday progress.  Thunderstorms and showers are predicted for Sunday afternoon and early evening.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas of the Plateau temperatures should reach the tolerance range but precipitation and humidity will remain high. Informants on the plateau continue to suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, therefore pollen release has not yet begun. However, the pollen station in Waco reported Juniperus ashei pollen in moderate amounts on Friday. Residents throughout south-central TX or the hill country should have another day without any ill effects.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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