University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 18  TX/OK/AR: High pressure installed over the southern plains will move to the east ahead of weak low pressure moving out of the Panhandle of Oklahoma and west Texas.  The low pressure will move to the east with a low chance of rain ahead of it, but increased cloudiness in Oklahoma and northern most Texas.  The main affect of the weather system will be to shift winds from the south to southwest over to the north to northwest after it passes.  However, winds will remain light throughout the region Temperatures in the southern Plains will be in the mid to upper 60 s with low temperatures in the mid 40 s.  Colder low temperatures, ~5degrees, will occur over the Edward s Plateau.  High temperatures on Wednesday will cool by 5 to 8 degrees whereas the low temperatures will be in the mid to low 30 s with colder conditions to the west and on the Plateau.  Cloudiness associated with the cold front will clear by Wednesday night.

Trajectory weather: Each of the trajectories initially move north as the cold front passes to the north then turn south to southeast as northerly winds dominate.  High temperatures and lower humidity will be in the range where pollination may begin.  The trajectories show characteristics of rising off of the plateau and then traveling at a nearly steady elevation.  These characteristics have been associated in the past with the delivery of pollen downwind from the pollination source areas.  The trajectories travel to the southeast crossing the metropolitan areas between Waco to Austin and San Antonio towards areas between Corpus Christi and Houston before traveling over the Gulf of Mexico.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas of the Plateau temperatures will reach the tolerance range with lowered relative humidity.  Indications are that Juniperus ashei pollen has begun to appear in the atmosphere, therefore a moderate threat may exist for residents living to the south to southeast of the source area.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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