University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 19  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will remain and build over the southern plains today and tomorrow.  Light winds and temperatures in the upper 50 s to low 60 s will occur throughout the Edwards Plateau and hill country of southern Texas.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 30 s to upper 20 s as clear skies dominate.  Winds will be light from the north switching to the south but calming overnight.  To the north, similar conditions will exist with a 10 degree lowering of the high temperatures and lows in the mid to lower 20 s.  On Wednesday, high pressure will continue to dominate with high temperatures warming by 5 degrees to the south and near 10 degrees to the north in Oklahoma.  Some cloudiness may develop over Oklahoma on Wednesday, but no precipitation is expected.  Winds will remain light throughout the region with a dominant southerly direction.

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the western Edwards Plateau initially move south then slowly make their way north.  The dominance of the regions high pressure can be seen as the winds lose elevation and move along the surface.  The trajectory from Austin makes a sweeping arc to south, before it turns towards the west to northwest.  Throughout the region strong sun conditions and low relative humidity will favor pollen release, entrainment and travel.  However, the light winds and lack of lift along the trajectories makes entrainment and long distance travel more problematic. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Over the Plateau temperatures, humidity, and strong sun conditions will favor pollen release.  However, informants on the Edwards Plateau suggest that the pollination season has only recently begun therefore a majority of the cones will remain closed.  Pollen that is entrained within the region should stay close to the areas surrounding the Edward s Plateau.  Therefore, San Antonio, Austin may see moderate influx levels as well as Abilene, Waco and Dallas/Fort Worth.  Longer distance dispersal should be restricted.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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