University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Monday, December 24  TX/OK/AR: Today, tomorrow and through the end of the week a strong upper level low pressure in the Great Lakes region and sustained high pressure over the Rocky Mountains will result in a push of arctic air throughout the southern plains region.  Temperatures in the Texas region will only reach the mid 50 s with the lower 50 s to the north and west.  Low temperatures will be below freezing to the west and in the mid 30 s along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Colder conditions exist to the north in Oklahoma where highs will be in the mid to upper 40 s and lows will be in the low 20 s. The Ozark Mountain region will see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and light to the south but more moderate out of the northwest to the north.  On Tuesday clear skies will dominate the region with high temperatures remaining in the same range, but low temperatures dropping another 5 degrees to the south.  Little change in the low temperatures is expected to the north.  

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the western Edwards Plateau move rapidly to the south.  The wind elevations show the influence of heavy cold, sinking air associated with the arctic air mass.  Throughout the region cold conditions and moderate wind speeds will not favor pollen release, entrainment or travel.  However, sunny conditions and dry humidity will continue to prepare the cones for future release.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod Threat to the south, Low Threat to the elsewhere *** favorable conditions for pollen release to the west, unfavorable conditions for pollen release to the east. Over the Plateau temperatures and light winds will restrict pollen release.  However, sunny conditions may bring temperatures within the trees to release conditions resulting in pollen being available for dissemination.  However, the potential for entrainment and travel is not great because of the light winds.  If pollination does occur, the wind trajectories indicate movement off the Edwards Plateau to the south and southwest might bring a moderate threat to the San Antonio region.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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