University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 26. TX/OK/AR:  A strong upper level low in the Great Lakes region and sustained high pressure over the Central Plains continues the arctic air throughout the southern plains region today.  Temperatures in the Texas region will reach the upper 50 s in the south with the lower to mid 50 s to the north and west.  Low temperatures will be below freezing to the west and in the mid 30 s along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Colder conditions exist to the north in Oklahoma where highs will be in the mid to upper 40 s and lows will be in the low 20 s. The Ozark Mountain region will see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler.  Winds will be from the northwest and light in the south but more moderate in the north. Clear, sunny skies continues to dominate the region

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the western Edwards Plateau move slowly to the south this afternoon and then turn northeast.  The wind elevations show the influence of heavy cold, sinking air associated with the arctic air mass.  Throughout the region cold morning conditions and low moderate wind speeds will not favor pollen release, entrainment or travel.  However, conditions will be sunny with dropping humidity with low to moderate wind speeds.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod Threat *** mixed conditions for pollen release. Over the Plateau low morning temperatures and light to moderate winds will restrict pollen release.  However, sunny conditions may bring temperatures within the trees to release conditions resulting in some pollen being available for dissemination.  Overall, the potential for entrainment and travel is not great.  If pollination does occur, the wind trajectories indicate movement off the Edwards Plateau to the south and then moving northeast tonight and tomorrow.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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