University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, December 28  TX/OK/AR: A push of cold northern air will influence the weather of the southern plains for the next couple of days.  Today will begin with warm blustery conditions to the south and cooler conditions to the north.  High temperatures will be close to 70 throughout the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country of central Texas.  In Oklahoma temperatures will reach the mid 50 s to low 60 s.  Skies will be sunny during the day to the south but mixed to partly cloudy to the north as the cold front approaches.    Region wide winds will be from the west to southwest throughout the day until the overriding cold front results in the winds switching to the north to northeast.   On Saturday, the cold front will continue to flow south dropping regional temperatures by 10 degrees.  In Texas, increased humidity will result in sunny days but partly cloudy conditions in the afternoon and overnight.  Low temperatures will be in the 30 s with many areas near the freezing mark.  Winds will be moderate and continue to blow from the north to northeast.  To the north in Oklahoma the cold air will result in a regional drop in temperatures.  For example, Tulsa may not make it out of the 30 s on Saturday.  Low temperatures will be in the 20 s and teens towards the Ozark Mountain region.  Winds will remain moderate during the day from the north to northeast.      

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Edwards Plateau show movement north towards the cold front as it travels south.  Once the front crosses a region the winds switch to the north-northeast and the trajectories turn towards the south.  Each of the trajectories from the Edwards Plateau shows a shift towards the east as well.  Sunny conditions today and tomorrow with warm temperatures, breezy conditions and low humidity until Saturday afternoon indicate good conditions for pollen release.  However, once the front passes and the winds shift to the north-northeast, the colder air show characteristic movement along the ground providing little lift for the pollen away from the trees.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious threat to the east *** very favorable conditions for pollen release. Over the Plateau warm temperatures, moderate winds and low relative humidity are right for pollen release.  Characteristics of the air masses, however are not good for the travel and downstream deposition of pollen away from the trees.  Each of the air masses travels over northern parts of the Edwards Plateau and then turn south east of Waco and Austin.  Pollen deposition is potentially serious in these areas.  Continued movement to the south on Saturday could bring significant levels to San Antonio, towards Corpus Christi and eventually Brownsville.  The threat today is along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and then further south tomorrow.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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