University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Saturday, December 29  TX/OK/AR: A push of cold northern air continues to work it way south with high pressure establishing itself in south central Nebraska.  To the west low pressure begins to build on the Colorado/New Mexico border.  Today will begin with mostly sunny conditions throughout the Southern Plains.  High temperatures in Texas will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with most readings in the upper 50 s.  Colder conditions occur to the north with Waco and San Angelo in the lower 50 s and Dallas only reaching the upper 40 s.  In Oklahoma colder, upper 30 s and low 40 s, will be accompanied by sunny conditions that turn partly cloudy through the day.  Low temperatures will hover around the freezing mark throughout Texas and be in the low 20 s in Oklahoma and the teens in the Ozark Mountain region.  The clockwise flow around the High pressure in Nebraska will result in moderate to moderately strong winds from the north to northeast across the region.  The winds will calm overnight.  On Sunday, cold conditions will continue and the low pressure to the west will slide south. Throughout the region humidity will increase resulting in mixed to partly cloudy conditions across the region.  A 50% chance of rain is forecast for areas to the south and east of the Edward s Plateau.  To the north, snow showers may occur in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Fayetteville Arkansas.  Winds will remain from the east to northeast region wide.  The exception will be along the western areas of the Edwards Plateau where the low pressure to the west will shift the winds to the south to southeast.      

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Edwards Plateau show movement to the south and west then are generally caught in the developing low pressure to the west.  Characteristically the flow out of the north to northeast is heavy colder air so the air masses move close to the ground.  Once the winds become associated with the weather system to the west, lift occurs and the winds gain altitude.  Sunny conditions will become partly cloudy by this afternoon, temperatures will be lower than yesterday and humidity will increase throughout the region.  Conditions will continue to be breezy until Saturday night.  On Sunday temperatures will continue to cool and increasing humidity will result in the chance of precipitation throughout the region.  The skies will become mixed clouds and sun, going towards mostly cloudy conditions.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat to the south this morning *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Over the Plateau temperatures will be cooler, moderate winds but increasing relative humidity will influence pollen release.  Characteristics of the air masses, however are not good for the travel and downstream deposition of pollen away from the trees.  Each of the air masses initially moves to the south-southeast therefore pollen influx may occur into San Antonio although conditions only partially favor pollen release. Cloudy conditions and higher humidity tomorrow, along with the chance of precipitation should rule out significant release or travel on Sunday.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page