University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 14 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Friday, December 14 TX/OK/AR: High pressure is building across the area resulting in a sunny day throughout central to northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. Central and northeastern Oklahoma will remain partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain to the north and east. Winds across the southern plains will remain light, 5 to 10 miles per hour, from the south. High temperatures will be in the low 60 s south, low 50 s to the north, with low temperatures varying from the upper 40 s to the north and lower 40 s to the south. On Saturday, a warm front moves north from the Gulf of Mexico bringing cloudy conditions to south and south central Texas. At the same time a developing trough over eastern Colorado and continued developing showers on a line from eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, across Arkansas, will increase wind strength across the region shifting from the south to southwest. Saturday will see partly cloudy conditions, thickening to the northeast with a 40% chance of precipitation in northwestern Arkansas. Windy conditions will be especially notable in Oklahoma City and Tulsa. High temperatures will be in the upper 60 s throughout Texas with the lows in the mid- to upper 40 s. Temperatures to the north, Oklahoma and the Ozark region, will be 10 degrees cooler on Saturday.
Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the low 50's. Increasing chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow on a line running southwest to northeast across Arkansas. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the upper 30 s with high temperatures on Saturday only reaching the low 50 s. Precipitation predicted for Saturday. Wind strength will increase on Saturday from the south to southwest, 15 to 20 miles per hour. Wind trajectories show a dominant south to north flow pattern with increasing height in the upper elevation trajectories as they arrive over the upper mid-west and into Canada. At the same time low elevation winds remain at or near the surface.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***Very unfavorable conditions for release today. In most areas with Juniperus ashei trees temperatures will not reach the tolerance range and with precipitation in the forecast humidity will remain high. In addition, informants in Texas suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, therefore pollen release in this northern population probably has not yet begun. Residents throughout southern plains should have another day without any ill effects. No pollen release is expected. Low Risk of Exposure.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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