University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 15 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Saturday, December 15 TX/OK/AR: On Saturday, A warm front continues to moves north from the Gulf of Mexico bringing cloudy conditions to south and south central Texas. At the same time a developing low pressure over Colorado continues to build associated with a cold front that will begin to move to the east. Ahead of this front rain will develop in a line from eastern Texas, to southeastern Oklahoma and across Arkansas. Winds will be from the south to southwest region wide with increased velocity to the north in Oklahoma. The cloudy conditions across eastern Texas will bring a chance of rain to Dallas, Waco, Fredricksburg and Austin. Areas of southern and eastern Oklahoma, as well as Arkansas and Missouri have significant chances of precipitation. High temperatures will be in the mid 60 s with low temperatures in the upper 50 s throughout Texas. An overall 5 degrees of cooling is expected for the northern areas of Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. Sunday will see a continued chance of precipitation in eastern Texas, Oklahoma and throughout Arkansas during the day with clearing occurring from the west late. Winds will continue to be from the south to southwest until the front passes when they will switch to a north to northwest direction. High temperatures will be in the upper 60 s throughout Texas with the lows in the lower 40 s to mid 30 s. Temperatures to the north, Oklahoma and the Ozark region, will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Saturday.
Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the low 50's. There is a significant chance of precipitation today, tonight and tomorrow. Strong winds from the south will take the wind trajectories on a fast path towards the north, gaining significant elevation as they travel.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***Conditions are very unfavorable for release today. In most areas with Juniperus ashei trees temperatures will barely reach the tolerance range and with precipitation in the forecast humidity will remain high. In addition, informants in Texas suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, therefore pollen release has not yet begun. Residents throughout southern plains should have another day without any ill effects.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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