University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 17 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Monday, December 17 TX/OK/AR: High pressure begins to build throughout the southern Plains as this weekend s precipitation continues to move to the east. Regional high temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 60 s with low temperatures this evening in the upper 30 s and low 40 s. The weather system to the east may result in backtracking of moisture into northern Texas and Oklahoma where mixed clouds may result in the possibility of sporadic showers. The Ozark region continues to have a 50% chance of precipitation throughout the day. Winds throughout the region will be light and from the north to northwest 5 to 15 miles per hour. The weather continues to improve on Tuesday with high pressure bringing sunny skies to the southern areas and mixed clouds to the Oklahoma region. Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid 60 s to the south and upper 50 s to lower 60 s in the northern areas. Winds will shift to the south to southwest and remain light.
Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the upper 40 s to low 50's. A significant chance of precipitation exists today but clearing will occur tomorrow with sunny skies. Low temperatures Monday will be around freezing with high temperatures on Tuesday reaching the mid to low 50 s. Winds on Monday will be from the northwest shifting to the southwest on Tuesday. High humidity will occur on Monday with drying as high pressure builds over the region.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Low temperatures and the chance of significant amounts of precipitation cause conditions for release to be unsuitable. Clearing skies and warmer conditions on Tuesday will improve conditions, but low temperatures and drying conditions cause conditions to remain unfavorable on Tuesday as well. Informants on the plateau suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, however, we are fast approaching the average period when pollination begins to occur. Without evidence of significant release, residents throughout the southern plains should have another day without any ill effects.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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