University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 18  TX/OK/AR: High pressure installed over the southern plains will move to the east ahead of weak low pressure moving out of the Panhandle of Oklahoma and west Texas.  The low pressure will move to the east with a low chance of rain ahead of it, but increased cloudiness in Oklahoma and northern most Texas.  The main affect of the weather system will be to shift winds from the south to southwest over to the north to northwest after it passes.  However, winds will remain light throughout the region Temperatures in the southern Plains will be in the mid to upper 60 s with low temperatures in the mid 40 s.  Colder low temperatures, ~5degrees, will occur over the Edward s Plateau.  High temperatures on Wednesday will cool by 5 to 8 degrees whereas the low temperatures will be in the mid to low 30 s with colder conditions to the west and on the Plateau.  Cloudiness associated with the cold front will clear by Wednesday night.

Trajectory weather: Sunny conditions today, high temperatures reaching the upper 50's. Low temperatures will be in the mid 30 s.  The passing cold front initially moves the trajectories north.  Surface winds then shift the lower trajectory towards the southeast, while the upper elevation winds continue to the east.  Humidity will lower as the region continues to dry from the precipitation over the weekend.  High temperatures will lower by about 10 degrees on Wednesday with low temperatures 5 degrees colder.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***Conditions are favorable for release today. In most areas with Juniperus ashei trees temperatures will barely reach the tolerance range, humidity will remain high as the region dries. There are indications that the trees in the Texas region are beginning to release pollen.  The timing of the Ozark Mountain population is unknown but thought to be later than either the Texas or southern Oklahoma populations. Therefore there is a low threat for the cites downwind from the Ozark Mountain population.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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