Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 19  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will remain and build over the southern plains today and tomorrow.  Light winds and temperatures in the upper 50 s to low 60 s will occur throughout the Edwards Plateau and hill country of southern Texas.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 30 s to upper 20 s as clear skies dominate.  Winds will be light from the north switching to the south but calming overnight.  To the north, similar conditions will exist with a 10 degree lowering of the high temperatures and lows in the mid to lower 20 s.  On Wednesday, high pressure will continue to dominate with high temperatures warming by 5 degrees to the south and near 10 degrees to the north in Oklahoma.  Some cloudiness may develop over Oklahoma on Wednesday, but no precipitation is expected.  Winds will remain light throughout the region with a dominant southerly direction.

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains initially move southeast then eventually move north on light wind conditions.  Weather conditions will see high temperatures in the mid 40 s today with low temperatures in the low 20 s.  On Thursday, these conditions will warm by 10 degrees, but still be below optimal temperatures for pollen dispersal.  Relative humidity will continue to lower as the region dries out from the weekend precipitation.  The dominance of the regions high pressure can be seen as the winds lose elevation and move along the surface.  Throughout the region strong sun conditions and low relative humidity will favor pollen release, entrainment and travel.  However, low temperatures, light winds and lack of lift along the trajectories makes entrainment and long distance travel more problematic. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains will not favor pollen release and the stage of cone ripening is currently not known.  The current weather will continue to ripen the pollen cones, but release will wait on warmer conditions.  In addition,, entrainment into the atmosphere and travel downwind would be restricted by sinking air characteristic of the overlying high pressure .  Therefore, there appears to be no threat to the surrounding area from this population. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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