University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 20 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Thursday, December 20 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will remain over the southern plains today but will begin to move to the east tomorrow with an increasing chance of showers to the north and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau tomorrow night. Regional winds will be light, from southerly directions today then increase to moderately strong tomorrow. Temperatures remain in the mid 60 s throughout the Texas hill country and Edwards Plateau region, with a 5 degree cooling in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. Low temperatures are in the low 40 s south and north with near freezing conditions in the Ozark Mountains. Tomorrow, high temperatures remain relatively constant but low temperatures will only reach the lower 50 s to upper 40 s throughout the region as warmer tropical air is drawn into the southern plains. Winds will be increasingly strong from the south with an increased chance of precipitation along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and to the northeast near the Ozark Mountains.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains all move rapidly to the north, especially at the upper elevations. An upper level low pressure to the north dominates the movement of the upper elevation air masses. The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains, initially move to the east with the current high pressure The winds are relatively stable and little elevation is gained. Throughout the region strong sun conditions, increasing wind speeds, and low relative humidity will favor pollen release, entrainment and travel. However, the conditions of the pollen cones and whether or not they are releasing pollen is currently unknown
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Mod Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are favorable for pollen release but the stage of cone ripening is currently not known. Temperatures will be in the upper 50 s with sunny conditions, increased wind speeds and relatively low humidity readings. The current weather will continue to ripen the pollen cones. If pollination is occurring, entrainment into the atmosphere and travel downwind will occur to the east and then north affecting central to eastern Missouri.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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