University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 21 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Friday, December 21 TX/OK/AR: High pressure remains over the southern plains today but continues to move east with increasing cloudiness during the day and a chance of showers across northern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozark Mountain region. Winds will be steady from the south or southeast with strong winds occurring in central Oklahoma. Temperatures remain in the mid 60 s throughout the Texas hill country and Edwards Plateau region, with a 5 to 7 degree cooling in Oklahoma and 10 degrees in the Ozark Mountain region. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50 s throughout the Hill country, 5 degrees cooler along the western edge of the Edwards Plateau as well as north into Oklahoma, and only in the low 40 s in the Ozark Mountain region. Tomorrow, a cold front will swing through the region dropping the nighttime temperatures by 15 to 20 degrees. Skies will become partly cloudy and winds will switch from the south towards the west to northwest. Rain will develop to the east in Texas and Arkansas. A chance of rain is forecast for the Ozark Mountain area.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains all move rapidly to the north, especially at the upper elevations.. The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains, follow the trend and flow across Missouri, Iowa and into Minnesota. Winds are relatively strong and from the south today shifting towards south to southwest tomorrow. A developing line of showers to the east will influence the Ozark Mountain weather with a 40% chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow. Throughout the region partly cloudy conditions, increasing relative humidity and the chance of precipitation will not favor pollen release.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release and the stage of cone ripening is currently not known. Temperatures will be in the mid 50 s with partly cloudy conditions, increasing wind speeds and relative humidity readings. To date there is no indication of pollen being released in the area.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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