University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 22 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Saturday, December 22 TX/OK/AR: Today a cold front swings through the region with the low centered over central Nebraska, dropping nighttime temperatures into the mid to lower 30 s in central Texas and the upper 30 s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. To the north, temperatures will reside in the 50 s throughout Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20 s to just below freezing. Partly cloudy skies will dominate throughout the region with precipitation, in the form of showers, building along a north to south line in eastern Texas and Oklahoma. Chances of precipitation range from 60% in the Ozark Mountains to 40% in Tulsa, Waco, Dallas and Austin. Winds will be moderate and from the west to southwest throughout the region. On Sunday skies will clear but cold arctic air will begin to flow south dropping high temperatures by 7 to 10 degrees. The central Texas area will barely reach 60 degrees. Low temperatures will be in the 20 s throughout the region. In Oklahoma a similar scenario leaves the high temperatures in the low 40 s and lows in the low 20 s. The Ozark Mountains will see highs in the 30 s and lows in the teens. Winds will remain moderate out of the north to northeast in Texas and west to northwest in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains all move rapidly to the east and south at low elevations. The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains, however, continue to be influenced by a strong low pressure in the Great Lakes region heading towards the north to northeast and gaining in elevation. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains will see increased humidity and a good chance of showers today clearing tomorrow, but with very cold temperatures and low s in the teens.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow as arctic air moves into the region. The stage of cone ripening is currently unknown but conditions will be bad for any release for those cones that are ready.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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