University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Monday, December 24  TX/OK/AR: Today, tomorrow and through the end of the week a strong upper level low pressure in the Great Lakes region and sustained high pressure over the Rocky Mountains will result in a push of arctic air throughout the southern plains region.  Temperatures in the Texas region will only reach the mid 50 s with the lower 50 s to the north and west.  Low temperatures will be below freezing to the west and in the mid 30 s along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Colder conditions exist to the north in Oklahoma where highs will be in the mid to upper 40 s and lows will be in the low 20 s. The Ozark Mountain region will see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and light to the south but more moderate out of the northwest to the north.  On Tuesday clear skies will dominate the region with high temperatures remaining in the same range, but low temperatures dropping another 5 degrees to the south.  Little change in the low temperatures is expected to the north.  

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains all move rapidly to the south as cold air is funneled in from the north   The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains follow a similar pattern moving south and to the east.  The air masses all travel at ground level with the dense cold air, characteristics that are not conducive to long distance dispersal. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow as arctic air moves through the region.  The stage of cone ripening is currently unknown but conditions will be bad for any release for those cones that are ready.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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