University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 25, TX/OK/AR: Today, tomorrow and through the end of the week a strong upper level low pressure in the Great Lakes region and sustained high pressure over the Rocky Mountains will result in a push of arctic air throughout the southern plains region.  Temperatures in the Texas region will only reach the mid 50 s with the lower 50 s to the north and west.  Low temperatures will be below freezing to the west and in the mid 30 s along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Colder conditions exist to the north in Oklahoma where highs will be in the mid to upper 40 s and lows will be in the low 20 s. The Ozark Mountain region will see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler.  Winds will be from the northwest to west and light in the south but more moderate in the north.  On Tuesday and Wednesday clear skies will dominate the region

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains move slowly to the east as cold air is funneled in from the west. The air masses will travel near ground level with the dense cold air, characteristics that are not conducive to long distance dispersal. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow as arctic air moves through the region.  The stage of cone ripening is currently unknown but conditions will be bad for any release for those cones that are ready.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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