University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 27 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Thursday, December 27, TX/OK/AR: The strong upper level low pressure in the Great Lakes region continues to influence the weather of the southern plains. A weak low pressure has developed over eastern New Mexico and will move to the east through west Texas, across northern Texas and then to the southeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. Sunny skies will occur in west Texas but the influx of moister gulf air to the east along the edge of the Edwards Plateau will result in mixed clouds and sunshine today. Temperatures throughout the Texas region will be in the mid 60 s with lows below freezing to the west and in the upper 30 s to low 40 s to the east. To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees colder with low temperatures near freezing. Skies will be cloudier with winds circulating around the low pressure centered over the Great Lakes creating moderate northerly winds that will diminish tonight. As the trough associated with the low pressure to the south moves through the area wind direction will shift to west to southwest. On Friday, conditions will improve dramatically to the south as High pressure reestablishes over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the high 60 s throughout the region and lows in the lower 40 s. To the north temperatures will rise to the mid 50 s but lows will remain below freezing as another weather system begins to move across the area. Cloudy conditions will remain. Watch for tomorrows forecast as conditions for pollen release and entrainment look good for Friday.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains travel almost due east at the lower elevations and to the east-northeast for the upper most trajectory. High temperatures in the Ozark Mountains will remain in the upper 40 s to low 50 s with lows well below freezing. The air masses at the lower levels continue to show little elevation through time and travel near ground level.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today with low temperatures and mixed clouds and sun. Travel characteristics of the trajectories remain unsuitable for entrainment and travel. The stage of cone ripening remains unknown but conditions will be bad for any release for those cones that are ready.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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