University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 29 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Saturday, December 29 TX/OK/AR: A push of cold northern air continues to work it way south with high pressure establishing itself in south central Nebraska. To the west low pressure begins to build on the Colorado/New Mexico border. Today will begin with mostly sunny conditions throughout the Southern Plains. High temperatures in Texas will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with most readings in the upper 50 s. Colder conditions occur to the north with Waco and San Angelo in the lower 50 s and Dallas only reaching the upper 40 s. In Oklahoma colder, upper 30 s and low 40 s, will be accompanied by sunny conditions that turn partly cloudy through the day. Low temperatures will hover around the freezing mark throughout Texas and be in the low 20 s in Oklahoma and the teens in the Ozark Mountain region. The clockwise flow around the High pressure in Nebraska will result in moderate to moderately strong winds from the north to northeast across the region. The winds will calm overnight. On Sunday, cold conditions will continue and the low pressure to the west will slide south. Throughout the region humidity will increase resulting in mixed to partly cloudy conditions across the region. A 50% chance of rain is forecast for areas to the south and east of the Edward s Plateau. To the north, snow showers may occur in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Fayetteville Arkansas. Winds will remain from the east to northeast region wide. The exception will be along the western areas of the Edwards Plateau where the low pressure to the west will shift the winds to the south to southeast.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains travel south and then into northeastern Texas. Very cold temperatures will prevail in the Ozark Mountains with the high s both today and tomorrow barely getting above freezing. Low temperatures both days will be in the teens. Humidity is on the increase with a 50% chance of snow showers in Fayetteville forecast for Sunday. Winds will be from the north to northwest and moderate. The air masses moving from the Ozark Mountains will travel to the south near ground level, conditions that does not favor pollen entrainment or travel.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow with very low temperatures and increasing humidity. Travel characteristics of the trajectories remain unsuitable for entrainment and travel.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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