University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 31 December 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Monday, December 31 TX/OK/AR: Cold northern air continues to be established over the southern plains. High pressure over the area and increasing humidity will result in mixed cloud conditions to partly cloudy skies during the day today. High temperatures in the central Texas region will only be in the mid to upper 40 s with a 10 degree cooling towards the north as Tulsa will only reach the lower 30 s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20 s to low 30 s to the south and mid 20 s to the north. The Ozark Mountain region will remain below freezing today and into the teen tonight. On Tuesday a trough will push over the area with significant lift over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to produce the chance of snow. Skies will be cloudy throughout the southern plains. Precipitation towards the southeast may fall as either rain or sleet depending upon the timing and storm development. To the north the moisture source will be reduced. Temperatures will remain cold with high temperatures barely getting into the 40 s in most places in Texas and remaining in the 30 s to the north. Low temperatures will be below freezing to the south and in the 20 s and teens to the north. Winds will be moderate to light and out of the north to northeast throughout the region.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains travel south into Arkansas. Very cold temperatures will prevail in the Ozark Mountains with the high s both today and tomorrow barely getting above freezing. Low temperatures both days will be in the teens. Sunny skies today will be clear tonight but increasing humidity will result in mixed to partly cloudy conditions on Tuesday. Winds will be moderate from the north to northwest calming overnight. The air masses moving from the Ozark Mountains will travel to the south near ground level, conditions that do not favor pollen entrainment or travel.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow with very low temperatures and increasing humidity. Travel characteristics of the trajectories remain unsuitable for entrainment and travel.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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