University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 12  TX/OK/AR: Showers and rain are in the forecast today for northern Texas, across central to eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas.  Precipitation of 0.25 inches is expected in OK City, Tulsa, and Ardmore with greater amounts to the east and north.  Temperatures will reach the low to mid 50 s, warmer to the south, with low temperatures in the upper 30 s to low 40 s.  On Thursday mostly cloudy conditions will persist with cooler temperatures.  Highs will be in the upper 40 s and lows near or below freezing.  Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will persist on Wednesday over the Edwards Plateau.  Cloudy conditions will dominate to the south and east with a greater chance of clearing to the west.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60 s with low temperatures in the mid 40 s overnight. Thursday temperatures will cool with highs reaching the mid to upper 50 s and low temperatures in the 30 s.  Throughout the entire southern plains region winds will be steady, 10-15 miles per hour, out of the south and southwest.  Overnight the regional wind pattern will shift towards the north-northwest and calm.  Relative humidity will be high with today s precipitation but a drying trend will begin in Texas as high pressure begins to build towards the end of the week.

Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the mid 50's. Chance of precipitation is 70% with 0.25 inch accumulation forecast.  Low temperatures Wednesday night in the lower 40 s, but dropping once the weather system moves to the east.  High temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 40 s to low 50 s.  Winds on Wednesday will be from the south to southwest, 10-15 mph, then shift overnight to the north-northwest on Thursday.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** very unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas with Juniperus ashei trees temperatures will not reach the tolerance range and with precipitation in the forecast humidity will remain high. In addition, informants in Texas suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, therefore pollen release has not yet begun. Residents throughout southern plains should have another day without any ill effects. No pollen release is expected. Low Risk of Exposure.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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