University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, December 13  TX/OK/AR: Precipitation continues to develop moving in from eastern Texas to the western edge of the Edwards Plateau, north into Dallas and southern Oklahoma.  Precipitation amounts will be low, but northern Texas and southern Oklahoma share a 60% chance of measurable rain today into this evening.  The western portion of the Edwards Plateau will be mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of showers to the north. Regional high temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 50 s to the south and east with lower 50 s on the western Plateau and in north Texas.  In Oklahoma and the Ozark region high temperatures will only reach the mid 40 s. Low temperatures will follow the same pattern being in the  upper 30 s and low 40 s to the south in Texas and around freezing northward in Oklahoma..  Winds are consistent throughout the region from the north to northwest at 10-15 miles per hour, calming during the evening.  On Friday, high pressure begins to build with mixed clouds and sunshine developing across the region. Warmer air moves north, with a 5 to 10 degree warming of high and low temperatures.  Wind patterns across the region switch from the north to the south-southwest and are generally 10-15 miles per hour with stronger wind strength in Oklahoma as a trough develops to the northwest. Relative humidity begins to drop as the high develops, falling below 50% across the western Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, with precipitation occurring along the southern and southeastern areas of the state. High temperatures will only be in the mid 40's. Tonight and tomorrow the clouds will clear with mostly cloudy conditions to the north and sunny conditions along the southern border.  Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the lower 30 s with high temperatures on Friday reaching the mid 50 s.  Winds on Thursday will be from the north to northwest, 5-15, calming during the evening and then shift to the south to southwest on Friday and increase to 10-20 mph depending on the location.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas with Juniperus ashei trees temperatures will not reach the tolerance range and with precipitation in the forecast to the south humidity will remain high.  On Friday conditions improve, but higher humidity and low temperatures should restrict any pollen release.  Informants in Texas suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, therefore pollen release has not yet begun. Residents throughout southern plains should have another day without any ill effects.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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