University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, December 14  TX/OK/AR: High pressure is building across the area resulting in a sunny day throughout central to northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.  Central and northeastern Oklahoma will remain partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain to the north and east.  Winds across the southern plains will remain light, 5 to 10 miles per hour, from the south.  High temperatures will be in the low 60 s south, low 50 s to the north, with low temperatures varying from the upper 40 s to the north and lower 40 s to the south.  On Saturday, a warm front moves north from the Gulf of Mexico bringing cloudy conditions to south and south central Texas.  At the same time a developing trough over eastern Colorado and continued developing showers on a line from eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, across Arkansas, will increase wind strength across the region shifting from the south to southwest.  Saturday will see partly cloudy conditions, thickening to the northeast with a 40% chance of precipitation in northwestern Arkansas.  Windy conditions will be especially notable in Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  High temperatures will be in the upper 60 s throughout Texas with the lows in the mid- to upper 40 s.  Temperatures to the north, Oklahoma and the Ozark region, will be 10 degrees cooler on Saturday.

Trajectory weather: Mostly clear today with increasing clouds tonight. The calculated trajectories show a pathway dominated by the south to north pressure gradient that causes the upper elevation winds to increase in elevation to the north.  Strong wind fields throughout the central plains will pull the air masses long distances over a relatively short period of time.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas with Juniperus ashei trees temperatures will barely reach the tolerance range, humidity will remain relatively high, especially to the north.  Informants in Texas suggest that the cones have yet to ripen on the Edwards Plateau, suggesting that pollen release has not begun.  Similar characteristics are expected in the Arbuckle Mountain population.  Residents throughout southern plains should have another day without any ill effects.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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