University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Monday, December 17  TX/OK/AR: High pressure begins to build throughout the southern Plains as this weekend s precipitation continues to move to the east. Regional high temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 60 s with low temperatures this evening in the upper 30 s and low 40 s.  The weather system to the east may result in backtracking of moisture into northern Texas and Oklahoma where mixed clouds may result in the possibility of sporadic showers.  The Ozark region continues to have a 50% chance of precipitation throughout the day.  Winds throughout the region will be light and from the north to northwest 5 to 15 miles per hour.  The weather continues to improve on Tuesday with high pressure bringing sunny skies to the southern areas and mixed clouds to the Oklahoma region.  Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid 60 s to the south and upper 50 s to lower 60 s in the northern areas.  Winds will shift to the south to southwest and remain light.

Trajectory weather: Mostly clear today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper 50 s to low 60 s both days.  Building high pressure shows characteristics of sinking air with each of the trajectory elevations near ground level.  The trajectories travel to the south-southeast, turn north and then again move to the southeast.  The developing high pressure in the area keeps the elevations near ground level.  Light winds result in the wind trajectories staying within the region.  Relative humidity throughout the area will become lower as drying continues.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas of the Edwards Plateau and in the Arbuckle Mountains temperatures will reach the tolerance range and humidity will be decreasing.  Informants on the plateau suggest that the cones have yet to ripen, however, we are fast approaching the average period when pollination begins to occur.  Without evidence of significant release yet,  it is expected that  residents throughout south-central TX , the hill country and southern Oklahoma should have another day without any ill effects.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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