Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Mod

Tulsa

Mod

St. Louis

Low

Date Issued: 18 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 18  TX/OK/AR: High pressure installed over the southern plains will move to the east ahead of weak low pressure moving out of the Panhandle of Oklahoma and west Texas.  The low pressure will move to the east with a low chance of rain ahead of it, but increased cloudiness in Oklahoma and northern most Texas.  The main affect of the weather system will be to shift winds from the south to southwest over to the north to northwest after it passes.  However, winds will remain light throughout the region Temperatures in the southern Plains will be in the mid to upper 60 s with low temperatures in the mid 40 s.  Colder low temperatures, ~5degrees, will occur over the Edward s Plateau.  High temperatures on Wednesday will cool by 5 to 8 degrees whereas the low temperatures will be in the mid to low 30 s with colder conditions to the west and on the Plateau.  Cloudiness associated with the cold front will clear by Wednesday night.

Trajectory weather: Sunny to the south and mixed clouds to partly cloudy weather to the north.  The trajectories from the Arbuckle mountains show northward flow ahead of the cold front move across the area then shifting towards the south to southeast.  Today, high temperatures will be in the lower 60 s in southern Oklahoma and upper 50 s throughout the rest of the state.  The temperatures will cool by 10 degrees after the cold front passes to the east.  Winds will remain light and switch from the south to the north to northwest as the cold front moves to the east.  Relative humidity will lower as the area continues to dry from the recent precipitation.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. In most areas with Juniperus ashei trees temperatures will reach the tolerance range and humidity will be low enough for pollen release.  There are indications that the trees in the Texas region are beginning to release pollen.  The Arbuckle population has generally been a few days to a week later to initiate release.  If conditions are right and the cones begin to open, the trajectories indicate movement over Oklahoma City towards Tulsa.  In addition the lifting of the atmosphere downwind from the Arbuckle Mountains is consistent with the entrainment of released pollen into the atmosphere and travel.  A moderate threat exists for the Oklahoma city and Tulsa region 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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