University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 19  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will remain and build over the southern plains today and tomorrow.  Light winds and temperatures in the upper 50 s to low 60 s will occur throughout the Edwards Plateau and hill country of southern Texas.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 30 s to upper 20 s as clear skies dominate.  Winds will be light from the north switching to the south but calming overnight.  To the north, similar conditions will exist with a 10 degree lowering of the high temperatures and lows in the mid to lower 20 s.  On Wednesday, high pressure will continue to dominate with high temperatures warming by 5 degrees to the south and near 10 degrees to the north in Oklahoma.  Some cloudiness may develop over Oklahoma on Wednesday, but no precipitation is expected.  Winds will remain light throughout the region with a dominant southerly direction.

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move south then slowly make their way north moving slowly with light wind conditions.  The dominance of the regions high pressure can be seen as the winds lose elevation and move along the surface.  Throughout the region strong sun conditions and low relative humidity will favor pollen release, entrainment and travel.  However, the light winds and lack of lift along the trajectories makes entrainment and long distance travel more problematic. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release, but the stage of cone ripening is currently not known.  On average the trees in southern Oklahoma generally begin to shed pollen up to a week after the trees to the south begin.  If true, then the current weather conditions will continue to ripen the pollen cones.  However, if pollination has begun then some influx to the north, between Oklahoma City and Tulsa, may occur.  The warm temperatures, low humidity, and strong sun conditions will favor pollen release.  However, entrainment into the atmosphere and travel downwind will be restricted by sinking air characteristic of the overlying high pressure .  Therefore, moderate to low influx levels may occur to the east of Oklahoma City and west of Tulsa.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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