University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, December 20  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will remain over the southern plains today but will begin to move to the east tomorrow with an increasing chance of showers to the north and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau tomorrow night.  Regional winds will be light, from southerly directions today then increase to moderately strong tomorrow.   Temperatures remain in the mid 60 s throughout the Texas hill country and Edwards Plateau region, with a 5 degree cooling in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Low temperatures are in the low 40 s south and north with near freezing conditions in the Ozark Mountains.  Tomorrow, high temperatures remain relatively constant but low temperatures will only reach the lower 50 s to upper 40 s throughout the region as warmer tropical air is drawn into the southern plains.  Winds will be increasingly strong from the south with an increased chance of precipitation along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and to the northeast near the Ozark Mountains. 

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains all move rapidly to the north, especially at the upper elevations.  An upper level low pressure to the north dominates the movement of the upper elevation air masses.   The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains follow the northerly air flow characteristic of sites further to the south..  Of note is the rising of the surface winds along with those at higher elevations.  These characteristics are consistent with conditions that prevailed during past events where pollen was transported some distance.  Throughout the region strong sun conditions, increasing wind speeds, and low relative humidity will favor pollen release, entrainment and travel. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release, but the stage of cone ripening is currently unknown.  On average the trees in southern Oklahoma generally begin to shed pollen up to a week after the trees to the south begin.  If true, then the current weather conditions will continue to ripen the pollen cones.  However, if pollination has begun then some influx through Oklahoma City may occur.  To date there is no indication that pollination has begun in this population.  However, the trajectories from the Edwards Plateau cross the Oklahoma region and pollination is indicated at these southerly locations   Therefore, influx levels may occur in Oklahoma City and Tulsa as the trajectories move north.  This is especially true of the trajectories coming from the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  The threat will diminish tomorrow as increasing humidity and a chance of showers are forecast for the Oklahoma region tomorrow evening.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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