University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, December 21  TX/OK/AR: High pressure remains over the southern plains today but continues to move east with increasing cloudiness during the day and a chance of showers across northern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozark Mountain region.  Winds will be steady from the south or southeast with strong winds occurring in central Oklahoma.  Temperatures remain in the mid 60 s throughout the Texas hill country and Edwards Plateau region, with a 5 to 7 degree cooling in Oklahoma and 10 degrees in the Ozark Mountain region.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 50 s throughout the Hill country, 5 degrees cooler along the western edge of the Edwards Plateau as well as north into Oklahoma, and only in the low 40 s in the Ozark Mountain region.  Tomorrow, a cold front will swing through the region dropping the nighttime temperatures by 15 to 20 degrees.  Skies will become partly cloudy and winds will switch from the south towards the west to northwest.  Rain will develop to the east in Texas and Arkansas.  A chance of rain is forecast for the Ozark Mountain area.

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains all move rapidly to the north, especially at the upper elevations.   The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains follow the northerly air flow characteristic of sites further to the south..  Of note is the rising of the surface winds along with those at higher elevations.  These characteristics are consistent with conditions that prevailed during past events where pollen was transported some distance.  Throughout the region strong sun conditions, increasing wind speeds, and low relative humidity will favor pollen release, entrainment and travel today, but this evening there will be increasing clouds and humidity. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release, but the stage of cone ripening is currently unknown.  On average the trees in southern Oklahoma generally begin to shed pollen up to a week after the trees to the south begin.  If true, then the current weather conditions will continue to ripen the pollen cones.  Yesterday, conditions were very favorable for pollen release and transport to the north and yet there was no registration downwind in either Oklahoma City or Tulsa.  This suggests that the trees have yet to begin pollination.  However, if pollination has begun then some influx through Oklahoma City may occur today from the Arbuckle Mountain source and the trajectories from the Edwards Plateau.  Therefore, moderate influx levels may occur in Oklahoma City.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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