University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Saturday, December 22 TX/OK/AR: Today a cold front swings through the region with the low centered over central Nebraska, dropping nighttime temperatures into the mid to lower 30 s in central Texas and the upper 30 s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north, temperatures will reside in the 50 s throughout Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 20 s to just below freezing.  Partly cloudy skies will dominate throughout the region with precipitation, in the form of showers, building along a north to south line in eastern Texas and Oklahoma.  Chances of precipitation range from 60% in the Ozark Mountains to 40% in Tulsa, Waco, Dallas and Austin.  Winds will be moderate and from the west to southwest throughout the region. On Sunday skies will clear but cold arctic air will begin to flow south dropping high temperatures by 7 to 10 degrees.  The central Texas area will barely reach 60 degrees.  Low temperatures will be in the 20 s throughout the region.  In Oklahoma a similar scenario leaves the high temperatures in the low 40 s and lows in the low 20 s.  The Ozark Mountains will see highs in the 30 s and lows in the teens. Winds will remain moderate out of the north to northeast in Texas and west to northwest in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the southern plains all move rapidly to the east and then south.   The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains follow a similar pattern moving east, then turning and heading south through Louisiana.  The air masses will all travel at ground level, characteristics that are not conducive to long distance dispersal.  The trajectories travel through areas that will have an increased chance of precipitation. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will not favor pollen release.  Conditions will be partly cloudy and an advance of cold arctic air will keep temperatures below the optimum for pollen release and dispersal.  There should be no threat of pollen in the area today or tomorrow as conditions unfavorable for release continue. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page