University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, December 27  TX/OK/AR: The strong upper level low pressure in the Great Lakes region continues to influence the weather of the southern plains.  A weak low pressure has developed over eastern New Mexico and will move to the east through west Texas, across northern Texas and then to the southeast over the next 24 to 48 hours.  Sunny skies will occur in west Texas but the influx of moister gulf air to the east along the edge of the Edwards Plateau will result in mixed clouds and sunshine today.  Temperatures throughout the Texas region will be in the mid 60 s with lows below freezing to the west and in the upper 30 s to low 40 s to the east.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees colder with low temperatures near freezing.  Skies will be cloudier with winds circulating around the low pressure centered over the Great Lakes creating moderate northerly winds that will diminish tonight.  As the trough associated with the low pressure to the south moves through the area wind direction will shift to west to southwest.  On Friday, conditions will improve dramatically to the south as High pressure reestablishes over the Edwards Plateau.  Temperatures will be in the high 60 s throughout the region and lows in the lower 40 s.  To the north temperatures will rise to the mid 50 s but lows will remain below freezing as another weather system begins to move across the area.  Cloudy conditions will remain.  Watch for tomorrow s forecast as conditions for pollen release and entrainment look good for Friday.

Trajectory weather:  The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains flow to the west then loop around to the north and then east as a week low pressure system moves through the area.  Cloudy conditions and increased humidity along with high temperatures only in the mid 50 s today do not lend themselves to much pollen release.  In addition the model results show little vertical movement in the air masses indicating minor amounts of turbulence and/or rising air away from the pollinating populations.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will just reach the favorable range for pollen release.  Conditions will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 40s.  A general warming is forecast for tomorrow so watch for upcoming forecasts and possible pollen influx.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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