University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, December 28  TX/OK/AR: A push of cold northern air will influence the weather of the southern plains for the next couple of days.  Today  will begin with warm blustery conditions to the south and cooler conditions to the north.  High temperatures will be close to 70 throughout the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country of central Texas.  In Oklahoma temperatures will reach the mid 50 s to low 60 s.  Skies will be sunny during the day to the south but mixed to partly cloudy to the north as the cold front approaches.    Region wide winds will be from the west to southwest throughout the day until the overriding cold front results in the winds switching to the north to northeast.   On Saturday, the cold front will continue to flow south dropping regional temperatures by 10 degrees.  In Texas, increased humidity will result in sunny days but partly cloudy conditions in the afternoon and overnight.  Low temperatures will be in the 30 s with many areas near the freezing mark.  Winds will be moderate and continue to blow from the north to northeast.  To the north in Oklahoma the cold air will result in a regional drop in temperatures.  For example, Tulsa may not make it out of the 30 s on Saturday.  Low temperatures will be in the 20 s and teens towards the Ozark Mountain region.  Winds will remain moderate during the day from the north to northeast.

Trajectory weather:  The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains flow to the northeast in front of the approaching cold front.  The trajectories reach towards northeast Oklahoma before being turned towards the south-southeast.  Winds will be moderate and humidity will increase before the front passes towards the south.  However conditions within the Arbuckle Mountain population will be suitable for pollen release during a significant portion of the day.  Warm temperatures, low humidity and moderate winds will be conducive to pollen release.  These conditions will moderated towards the afternoon, tonight and tomorrow.  The air mass characteristics are also suitable for pollen entrainment and travel with increased elevation during the beginning of the day.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release, however temperatures will be on the cool side.  Clouds will increase this afternoon as the cold front approaches from the north and winds will switch from the south-west to the north.  Pollen entrained this morning may make it as far north as Tulsa prior to turning south.  The exact timing is conditional on the movement of the front and the amount of humidity associated with the cloud buildup prior to its arrival.  Conditions may be right to deliver a moderate amount of pollen from southern Oklahoma into the Tulsa region..

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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