University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 06 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, December 6, TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern Edwards Plateau with warming and drying conditions today and tomorrow.  Winds will be light to moderate from the south to southwest throughout today and into Saturday.  Southeast winds will develop on Saturday along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau bringing higher humidity into San Antonio and Austin resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions Saturday afternoon.  To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, winds will be light to moderate from the southwest increasing to moderate overnight and into Saturday.  High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach the low to mid 50s today and into the mid to upper 50s tomorrow.  Lows overnight on Friday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the region.  To the north temperatures will be similar with highs today in the mid to upper 40 s and low 50s on Saturday. Low temperatures will be in the 30s tonight.  Throughout the entire region sunny skies will prevail today and tonight with increasing humidity and partly cloudy skies on Saturday.         

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas all move to the north along the direction of the south to southwestern winds. The Austin trajectory will pass over the Tulsa region. Drying conditions will prevail today but increasing humidity will occur tomorrow with partly cloudy skies. 

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Over the plateau warming temperatures and humidity on the decline will produce conditions becoming favorable for pollen release today.  However, there is no indication from our informants that active pollination has begun on the trees.   Therefore there is only mixed conditions for pollen release. As the weekend progresses increasing humidity and a heightened chance of showers to the south will lessen the potential for pollen release.  The air masses trajectory characteristics only show moderate to little lift in the atmosphere today coupled to low wind speeds, which is not wholly conducive to entrainment and travel.  Pollen that is released and entrained will move to the north over the Dallas and Fort Worth areas into Oklahoma. 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University),and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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