University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

 Low

Tulsa

 Low

St. Louis

 Low

Date Issued: 06 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, December 6 TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern Edwards Plateau with warming and drying conditions today and tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the south to southwest throughout today and into Saturday.  Southeast winds will develop on Saturday along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau bringing higher humidity into San Antonio and Austin resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions Saturday afternoon.  To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, winds will be light to moderate from the southwest increasing to moderate overnight and into Saturday.  High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach the low to mid 50’stoday and into the mid to upper 50 s tomorrow.  Lows overnight on Friday will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s across the region.  To the north temperatures will be similar with highs today in the mid to upper 40 s and low50 s on Saturday.  Low temperatures will be in the 30’s tonight. Throughout the entire region sunny skies will prevail today and tonight with increasing humidity and partly cloudy skies on Saturday.               

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast over the Tulsa area and into Missouri. Light to moderate winds today ill be from the south to southwest.  Winds will increase overnight to moderate.  Sunny and clear skies today and tonight will see increased cloudiness on Saturday and humidity begins to rise.  A slight warming will occur throughout the region today and tomorrow

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release todayConditions in southern Oklahoma will see temperatures in the 30s and low 40s this morning with the upper 40s this afternoon.  Sunny conditions generally would lead to some pollen release, however, there is no indication from our observers that pollination has begun within the trees.  Therefore along with the cool temperatures unfavorable conditions for pollen release are forecast.  In addition, the air trajectory characteristics show little lift in the winds moving over Oklahoma which is necessary to carry pollen downwind.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa OK 74104).This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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