University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 07 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Saturday, December 07 TX/OK/AR: Sunny to partly cloudy conditions will continue today as high pressure to the east influences the regional weather picture. Throughout the region temperatures will be warming with light winds from the southwest to west.  Temperatures will moderate today with 50s throughout the Texas region and mid-40s north inOklahoma.  During the night cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will prevail with temperatures just above freezing north and in the mid to upper 40s south. Beginning Sunday the high pressure will shift further east and pacific moisture will begin to move in from the west.  Increasing chance of rain will occur to the south and southwest beginning by mid-afternoon with rain by early evening across the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will shift from predominantly south to southwest over to a north to northeast direction.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas all move to the north and northeast with the southerly winds then turn on Sunday back over themselves as the next system moves in from the west.  Increasing humidity and showers by Sunday afternoon will cause deposition any particles entrained within the air atmosphere. The trajectory characteristics show rising atmospheric conditions which are usually associated with pollen entrainment and long distance dispersal.

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Over the plateau warming temperatures will produce conditions becoming favorable for pollen release today.  As the week-end progresses, however, these conditions will deteriorate with precipitation expected throughout southern Texas on Sunday afternoon. Overall our informants have yet to observe active pollination therefore a low threat for significant atmospheric concentrations exist. 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo,TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water (Departmentof Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty ofBiological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future trackof released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and alongthe forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitanareas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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