University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 07 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Saturday, December 07 TX/OK/AR: Sunny to partly cloudy conditions will continue today as high pressure to the east influences the regional weather picture. Throughout the region temperatures will be warming with light winds from the southwest to west.  Temperatures will moderate today with 50’s throughout the Texas region and mid-40s north in Oklahoma.  During the night cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will prevail with temperatures just above freezing north and in the mid to upper 40s south. Beginning Sunday the high pressure will shift further east and pacific moisture will begin to move in from the west.  Increasing chance of rain will occur to the south and southwest beginning by mid-afternoon with rain by early evening across the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will shift from predominantly south to southwest over to a north to northeast direction.         

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains initially move to the northeast then shift to the south with the lower elevations traveling back over Arkansas.  Cold air remains over the region with high temperatures today and tomorrow only in the mid-40s.  Low temperatures tonight will be near freezing.  Winds will remain light as throughout the region beginning from the southwest eventually shifting out of the north to northeast by Sunday. Skies will be cloudy to partly cloudy throughout the region.. 

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today with low temperatures.  Overall our informants have yet to observe active pollination in any of the Juniperus ashei populations; therefore, a low threat for significant atmospheric concentrations exists. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water(Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University),and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, TheUniversity of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  Thisforecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and anestimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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