University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 09December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): EdwardsPlateau, Texas

Regional weather: Monday, December 09 TX/OK/AR: Cloudy and rainyweather will greet most of Texas today.  A weather system is currently centered over the state and will bring wet weather to the region today then move towards the east to northeast over night.  Heavy rainfall is expected over regions of Texas and into Oklahoma throughout the day.  Winds will be light in the northern areas and moderate in the south from the north to northeast. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s south and low 40s to upper30s to the north.  Lows overnight on Monday will be in the low 30s to the north and upper 30s to the south with calm winds throughout theregion.  On Tuesday, cloudy conditions will prevail with heightened humidity throughout the region. Temperatures will begin to warm reaching the mid-to upper 50s to the south and mid-40s to the north. Winds in this region will remain moderate to light out of the southwest in the western portions of the area and from the north to northwest along the eastern sections of the Edwards Plateau.  In Oklahoma winds will be from the south to southeast and light.  Partly cloudy conditions with increasing sun breaks and clearing is expected late Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening.         

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the western sites in Texas move towards the south whereas the Austin trajectories move towards the southwest.  Movement of the current system out of the area will eventually shift the wind directions over the next couple days.  Once the system leaves, conditions will begin a slow recovery with increasing temperatures and drying conditions. 

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** unfavorable conditionsfor pollen release today.  Stormy conditions, with significant amounts of precipitation over Texas and into Oklahoma result in wet conditions, low temperatures, and high humidity. All of these conditions are unfavorable for the release of pollen into the atmosphere.  Therefore there is a low threat of pollen dispersal from the populations and its travel downwind.  In addition our field observers have yet to sight significant pollen release in trees.  The air masses trajectory characteristics show flat or sinking atmospheric conditions along with low windspeeds, which are not conducive to entrainment and travel. 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo,TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water(Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University),and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecastgives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weatherconditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimatedtime of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page