University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, December10 TX/OK/AR: Conditions will be improving today as the system that brought the heavy rains continues to move to the east.  High pressure begins to build over the region and will continue for the next couple of days.   Winds will be light today from the south to southeast in the north, shifting to a general south to north direction during the day over the rest of the area.  High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach into the 50s today and into the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday.  Lows overnight on Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s from north to south.  To the north in Oklahoma, temperatures will be 5 degrees cooler all around with highs today in the upper 40s and mid-50s on Wednesday.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s Tuesday night.  Winds in this region will remain light out of the south-southeast today, then increase to moderate conditions on Wednesday. Throughout the entire region skies will begin to clear with clouds towards the north.  Partly cloudy conditions will linger on Tuesday evening and overnight intoWednesday.       

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the north on light winds crossing over the Dallas/ Ft, Worth area and to the west.  Light to moderate winds on Tuesday morning will continue overnight with moderate conditions picking up on Wednesday.  Skies should begin toclear today as high pressure builds in. However, cloudy skies will return tonight and tomorrow across the region with some clearing to the south.  Temperatures will be in the 50s warming to the upper 50s tomorrow.  However, cloudy conditions are expected to return tonight and tomorrow.   

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Over the plateau temperatures will begin to warm as high pressure begins to build in the region.  However, with yesterday's weather high humidity levels will occur as the region begins to dry.  Partly cloudy skies should begin to clear and sunnier conditions begin, especially to the south.  Because of the overall cool conditions and high humidity, conditions are unfavorable for pollen release.  Our field informants have yet to see actively pollinating trees.  In addition, the air masses trajectory characteristics only show moderately rising air today and low windspeeds, which is not conducive to entrainment and travel.  Any pollen that is released and entrained will move to the north to northeast over the Dallas and Fort Worth areas but we do not expect to see any deposition of pollen in the area. 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo,TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

 

Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water(Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University),and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, TheUniversity of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecastgives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weatherconditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimatedtime of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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