University
of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 10 December 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Tuesday, December10 TX/OK/AR: Conditions will be improving today as the system
that brought the heavy rains continues to move to the east. High pressure
begins to build over the region and will continue for the next couple of days.
Winds will be light today from the south to southeast in the north, shifting to a general south to north
direction during the day over the rest of the area. High temperatures across the Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country will reach into the 50s today and into the
mid to upper 50s on Wednesday. Lows overnight on Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s from north to
south. To the north in Oklahoma, temperatures will be 5 degrees
cooler all around with highs today in the upper 40s and mid-50s on Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in
the mid 30s Tuesday night. Winds in this region will remain light out of the south-southeast today, then increase to moderate conditions on Wednesday. Throughout the entire region skies
will begin to clear with clouds towards the north. Partly cloudy
conditions will linger on Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains fan
out from west to east at higher elevations moving to the north across the state of Missouri.
High pressure begins to build to the southwest over the southern plains and will result in an overall warming of
the area over the next few days. However, cold air remains in the Ozark
Mountain region on Monday with high temperatures only in the upper 30s
and lows around freezing. Light winds from the south will prevail today, overnight and into tomorrow.
Skies will begin cloudy today but sun breaks and partly cloudy conditions will prevail overnight as clearing begins
tomorrow. This morning showers will continue to the south in Arkansas
which may push some cloudy weather northward.
OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions
in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today with low temperatures and
cloudy skies. However, improving conditions with sunnier skies and warming conditions along with decreasing
humidity will result in an improved chance for release during the next few days.
However, our field scouts have yet to see pollination begin in any of the southern populations therefore
the pollen release potential continues to be low this early in the season.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove,
AR
Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water(Department
of Geosciences, Oregon State University),and
Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa,
600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).
This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the
region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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