University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, December10 TX/OK/AR: Conditions will be improving today as the system that brought the heavy rains continues to move to the east.  High pressure begins to build over the region and will continue for the next couple of days.  Winds will be light today from the south to southeast in the north, shifting to a general south to north direction during the day over the rest of the area.  High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach into the 50s today and into the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday.  Lows overnight on Tuesday will be in the upper 30’s to low 40 s from north to south.  To the north in Oklahoma, temperatures will be 5 degrees cooler all around with highs today in the upper 40s and mid-50s on Wednesday.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s Tuesday night.  Winds in this region will remain light out of the south-southeast today, then increase to moderate conditions on Wednesday.  Throughout the entire region skies will begin to clear with clouds towards the north.  Partly cloudy conditions will linger on Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday.       

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast over the Tulsa area, through northern Missouri and into Iowa over the next 48 hour period.  Light to moderate winds on Tuesday morning will continue overnight with moderate conditions picking up on Wednesday.  Cloudy skies will prevail today for the region with some clearing to the south. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s warming to the lower 50s tomorrow.   However, cloudy conditions are expected to return tonight and tomorrow.   

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will begin to improve, but the cool temperatures and high humidity from yesterday’s precipitation will not favor pollen release today.  Temperatures will warm tomorrow but cloudy conditions are expected to return. In addition, our field informants have yet to indicate active pollination within any of the Juniperus ashei populations. The air trajectory characteristics show little lift with elevations throughout their course. Therefore, if any pollen is entrained a limited dispersal is expected.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water(Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University),and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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